October 13, 2020:
We welcomed Steve Silfer to give us an economic view of the impact of Covid-19 and some thoughts on what the future will look like. We resume operating in hybrid mode this week, with a limited number of in-person members able to attend meetings at 5 Faber and remote access also available by Zoom.
Steve Slifer joined last Tuesday to discuss “Covid-19 – What happened? What’s next?” from an economic point of view. Mr. Slifer is a graduate of the University of Maryland (B.S. Economics) and George Washington University (M.S. Economics). From 1980 until his retirement in 2003, Mr. Slifer was the Chief U.S. Economist for Lehman Brothers in New York City. In that role he directed the firm’s U.S. economics group and was responsible for the firm’s forecasts and analysis of the U.S. economy.
Prior to that he spent a decade as a senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., forecasting growth in the money supply.
He is a columnist for the Charleston Regional Business Journal and owns NumberNomics offering financial analysis, projections and consulting. Steve is also a member, treasurer, and head of the speaker program for the Daniel Island Rotary Club.
Steve started with an overview of the current situation starting with the corona virus triggering a crisis that shut the economy down, triggers government stimulus and looks to be the shortest recession ever.
Why, though, is so much focus on the corona virus, with 202,000 deaths, when we have been through similar crises with Asian Flu in 1957 and Hong Kong Flu in 1968. It is a crisis in the era of Social Media. The media historically thrives on bad news but this is particularly acute, and with social media, the validity of information is not always confirmed.
The economic drop is roughly aligned with 2008 drop but that took place over 18 months; this happened in 4 weeks.
The Fed dropped rates, the markets sank, the Administration added stimulus, the markets still sank, and so drastic measures are taken to quarantine and the economy stops and unemployment skyrockets. The stimulus adds real money to economy so it comes roaring back. Housing market is hot with low inventory and low mortgage rates.
We have recovered about half of the jobs lost but at a record pace and expect to completely regain employment figures by end of next year. If you are willing to spend money (stimulus) something will happen. The shortest but deepest recession ever.
The consequence is record breaking budget deficits but no one seems to care, not even the treasury.
Steve indicates that he doesn’t think we need more stimulus but thinks we will get it.
What’s next?
The economy that comes out of this will not look like the one before. The obvious losers are brick and mortar stores, movie theaters, small businesses and businesses that are undercapitalized. Temporary losers are the more hospitality related industries and will pick up once a vaccine is created. The winners are teleconferencing, online sales, healthcare, biomedical research, broadband, and data security. Technology helped us get out of this and will help us adapt to the new economy going forward. Steve expects about a 5.5% rate of GDP growth in 2021. The fed rates are expected to remain low for some time and assuming no fed action, we are at the beginning of another period of multi-year expansion.
Go here for a recording of the meeting.
Submitted by Don Baus, Chairman Keyway Committee
IN OTHER MEETING NEWS
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- Stefany Ceccato gave the Invocation and led us in the pledge.
- President Lisa welcomed all visiting Rotarians & guests and had them introduce themselves.
- President Lisa presented Health and Happiness.
- Tom Leonard welcomed and introduced our guest speaker and fellow Rotarian from the Daniel Island Rotary Club, Steve Slifer, who discussed “COVID19 – What Happened? What’s next? From an Economic Standpoint
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MORE IN THIS WEEK’S KEYWAY
October 20, 2020 | Issue 4982| President: Lisa Van Bergen
UPCOMING EVENTS
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- October 20 –Dr. Jacob Mintzner, Roper, Alzheimer’s Research (Mary Peters)
- October 24 – Beach Sweep
- October 27 – Candidate Forum US Rep Joe Cunningham vs. Nancy Mace
- Nov 3 – Pauline Levesque, District 7770 Governor
- Nov 10 – Board Meeting @ 11am / Brigadier General Brad Owens (Veterans Day)
- Nov 17 – Will Haynie, Mayor of Mt. Pleasant
- Nov. 20 – Day of Caring
- Nov. 24 – NO MEETING (Thanksgiving)
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NEWS BRIEFS
Hybrid meeting model resumes
We will continue to offer our Rotary Meetings by Zoom well into the foreseeable future, and now we are also able to offer an IN-PERSON option with a few alterations to the way we have met in the past (see below). We hope that as many of you as possible will be able to join us!
Important Note: Attendance requirements for attending the Rotary Club of Charleston luncheon have been waived. Attending the Rotary Club of Charleston Luncheon is voluntary and members/guests are invited to join us in-person or virtually on ZOOM. Anyone who is “at risk” for COVID-19 is encouraged to stay at home
A RSVP is required for those attending in person, as we have a cap of 70 people for our in-person meetings for the time being. The deadline for RSVPs was this past Thursday, Oct. 15. Reservations for this meeting are now closed. If your schedule has changed and you are now available to attend in-person, please contact Carroll as there is a possibility that there is availability. We will also offer the meeting on Zoom and that link will be included in the weekly Keyway email.
IMPORTANT Meeting Update – In-Person or Zoom
In-Person Meeting Guidelines
The following guidelines have been established for our in-person meetings that comply with state and local regulations for events:
ENTERING MEETING/REGISTRATION
- Attendance is at your own risk and only those who are healthy are encouraged to attend
- Wearing masks upon entering is optional
- Entrance doors will be open
- Marks on floor every 6 feet to registration table
- Registration table located inside room past “lounge area”
- Rotarians/Visitors/Guests wait in line to be signed in by Sergeant-At-Arms Committee
- Temperature will be taken at door and anyone with a 100.4 or higher will not be permitted in the meeting.
- Anyone entering the meeting (members/guests/speakers/venue staff) will be expected to sign a COVID waiver. The COVID waiver will be emailed to club members and venue prior to our first several in-person meetings for review. Members can certainly share with guests.
- Sergeant-At-Arms committee will be wearing masks & gloves
- No badges
- No raffle
- Hand sanitizer located at registration and in various locations in the room
SEATING
- Lunch will be plated and served as Rotarians arrive at their tables – no buffet or drink station
- Rotarians/Visitors/Guests will be encouraged to find a seat after being registered. Try to fill tables from the far wall (near the kitchen) outward to eliminate some of the brushing up against others while finding a seat
- Tables & seats will be appropriately spaced to allow for social distancing
- Hand sanitizer will be at each table
HEAD TABLE
- 1 Head table with 2 seats – speaker and speaker introducer
- Podium with table mic (wipes available on podium)
INTRODUCTION OF GUESTS/VISITORS
- No passing of handheld mic/members will stand-up and introduce guests without use of mic
RSVP REQUIRED TO ATTEND MEETINGS
- Members/Visitors/Guests planning to attend weekly meetings will be required to RSVP through Evite to let us know if you are planning to attend as we are limited to 70 people at this time
- Any dietary restrictions need to be noted on the RSVP
ZOOM / RECORDINGS
Meetings will continue to be available on Zoom and a recording will also be emailed out after the meeting for those not comfortable attending in person
We will continue to monitor the situation and any changing state and local ordinances to assure we are keeping the safety of all as our highest priority. Because we are continuing to Zoom the meetings, we hope that those who are not yet comfortable attending in person will continue to log in by Zoom from the comfort of your home. No yummy lunch by Hall’s or the in-person camaraderie of your fellow Rotarians, but it is the next best thing to stay engaged and be connected to your Rotary family. And as we know, the impact of Rotary is felt through our volunteerism and support of one another and the community, especially during trying times.
Important COVID-19 Message from the District
As we go back to attending meetings in person, we wanted to again share the below from the District. Members are asked to keep this in mind.
It has come to my attention that we need to set some ground rules for dealing with Rotarians who contract COVID-19 and how we deal with this in our clubs. First, for the Rotarians themselves. We MUST maintain absolute confidentiality for ANYONE who tests positive for COVID-19 unless they give us permission to share their information. That said, we MUST also ask, even require, that any Rotarian who has been to an in-person Rotary meeting or other function and later suspects they have COVID-19 report this to their Club President as soon as possible. This could be due to being in close contact with a person who tests positive or that they show symptoms. And, they absolutely must let the Club President know immediately if they test positive. Then, keeping confidentiality, the Club President MUST let all who attended that event know that there was someone at the event or meeting who came down with symptoms or tested positive. This will, at least, give all those notified the option of being tested immediately. And, it gives them warning that maybe they should limit their contact with others until it is proven that they are not infected.
Community Service Volunteer Opportunities
Community Service Committee is prepping for the upcoming Beach Clean Up on Saturday, October 24th, at 1:00. Stavros Triantafyllidis is coordinating, and a specific location is TBD. Next, we have the United Way Day of Caring on Friday, November 20th. We’ll be linked with students from Burke High School, and sharing insights on careers, career paths, and educational backgrounds. There will be a 1 ½ hour Zoom call, where Rotarians can share in 3 20-minute segments their personal career story. We’re looking for a wide range of careers to share – please consider yours! If you’d like to volunteer or would like more information, please contact our Community Service Director, Virginia Lee at [email protected]
July Dues Now Past Due
If you haven’t already, please be sure to pay your July-December 2020 dues. Statements were distributed via email the last of June and are now considered past due. As a reminder to those with an outstanding balance, a statement was emailed this past week. Please note that we have expanded our payment options and you now have the ability to pay via ACH and PayPal. Also of note, a 3% convenience fee is added to all credit card dues payments.
Members with outstanding balances have received multiple past due notices and should note that payment is now considered 90 days past due. (see below for Failure to Pay Policy).
The below policy was approved by the Board this past Spring and went into effect on July 1, 2020. Our club’s operating budget depends on members paying their dues as we incur various expenses based on our membership count and we cannot continue to pay for Rotarians, who do not fulfill their commitment of paying semi-annual dues.
Failure to Pay Dues Policy (effective 7/1/20)
“Any Rotary member with dues past 90 days must either pay in full or develop a payment plan, which includes making a minimal payment. If this is not in place by 120 days, then membership in Rotary will be terminated. If a member wishes to return, they must pay all outstanding dues prior to resubmitting an application.”
Another IMPORTANT change …. When we start meeting in-person in September, meal fees will increase to $30 for both excused members and guests. We will also ask that meal fees (Excused & guests) be paid at the door. We will no longer bill.
US Navy 245th Birthday Recognized
Walk to End Alzheimer’s
This year, the Charleston Alzheimer’s Association Walk to End Alzheimer’s, on November 7th, is everywhere — on every sidewalk and bridge, the beach, downtown, in parks and anywhere your team chooses to walk. Your team can be one person or 200 and you can walk together or separate. Although the world may look a little different right now, one thing hasn’t changed: our commitment to the fight against Alzheimer’s.
The 2020 Charleston Walk to End Alzheimer’s won’t be a large in-person gathering this year — instead, we invite you to walk wherever you like in small teams of friends and family while others in your community do the same. We want the Greater Charleston area to be covered in purple on November 7th!
There are a couple of ways we invite you to participate. Create a team and walk with us to support the cause or be a Sponsor.
How to participate:
1. Register for the Charleston Walk.
Sign up as a Team Captain, team member or individual. It doesn’t matter where you live you can sign up for the Charleston walk and walk where you are that day.
http://act.alz.org/charlestonwalk
2. Start fundraising and spread the word.
We’ll provide tips and coaching every step of the way, including easy ways to raise funds online and at home.
3. Join us on Walk day which is November 7th – everywhere.
Take part in an interactive online experience, walk in your community and visit the planted Promise Garden, which is view only.
Alzheimer’s isn’t waiting. Neither are you.
No matter where you are, you can walk.
http://act.alz.org/charlestonwalk
Official Rotary Club of Charleston Statement on Racial Inequity and Business Support
The Rotary Club of Charleston Board of Directors has adopted an official statement on Racial Inequity and Business Support in light of the recent unrest in our community and across the nation and the world. Rotary International had adopted an official statement on June 1, and we felt it was important for our Rotary Club to take a stand to condemn racial injustice and also show support for our small businesses who were affected during the recent rioting. While this has been a very challenging year for our community and our members with this pandemic and the resulting economic effects, we feel hopeful that a shift is occurring for the pandemic that has plagued our country for 400 years. In both our words and our actions, we have a chance to be a part of changing our future to one that allows all of our citizens to have a chance to live up to their fullest potential. With all the amazing and transformative impact the Historic Rotary Club of Charleston has had on our community and milestones that we have celebrated throughout this 100th anniversary year, you can be proud to be a part of an organization that lives up to our vision of uniting to create lasting change in our world, our communities and in ourselves.
The statement in its entirety can be found on the lead page of our club’s website.
Club/District Emails
As a Rotarian and a member in District 7770, you are receiving emails from our club and the District. Both the club and the District try to minimize the number of emails being sent, but in today’s world of staying at home and no contact, emails are the main way to get information out and keep Rotarians connected. Please do not unsubscribe from District emails as this also effects your ability to receive club emails. If you unsubscribe from the District emails, then you are also unsubscribing from receiving club emails.
Contribute to The CART Fund On-Line
It is now easy to contribute and support The CART Fund electronically. The CART Fund has just rolled out a new portal www.mycartfund.org, which you can easily access. As a Rotarian and a DACdb user, you automatically have an account already set-up in your name. Your user name and password are the same as it is for the DACdb.
Our Club is on Social Media
Members are encouraged to follow all of our social media channels and share posts with their followers too! We also need members to send us picture of anything they do that relates to Rotary – service projects, meetings, events, etc. We would love to keep our accounts full of smiling Rotarians! Photos can be sent to Mike Sottak, [email protected], or Rob Byko, [email protected].
MEMBER NEWS
Sad news …. Former member of our club Stovall Witte passed away this past week after a long battle with cancer. His funeral service took place this past Saturday at Whitfield Stadium on the campus of CSU. Stovall was a Paul Harris Fellow and a dedicated member of our club for over 7 years. He will be greatly missed by us all. Please keep his wife and family in your thoughts and prayers.
Proposed New Member
The following membership candidate has submitted an application and signed letter of agreement to the Historic Rotary Club of Charleston:
Maxine “Mackie” K. Moore – sponsor: Past President Sandy Morckel; classification: Eleemosynary/Executive
In the event you know Mackie, please tell a member of the Board how he will serve the ideas of Rotary.
MEMBER SPOTLIGHT
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- Rotarian: Karla Combs
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- JOINED: September 15, 2020; Previous member of the Lake
Norman-Huntsville Rotary & North Mecklenburg Rotary
- SPONSOR: Past President Sandy Morckel
- MEMBERSHIP INVOLVEMENT: New Member
- CLASSIFICATION: Insurance
- PROFESSION: Sales Executive, Moulten & Sheally Insurance
- SOMETHING UNIQUE ABOUT YOURSELF: Was a cheerleader for 10 years
- JOINED: September 15, 2020; Previous member of the Lake
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- Rotarian: Karla Combs
Birthdays
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- Oct. 19 – Brian Johnson
By the numbers
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- Attendance on October 13, 2020 (In Person and Zoom): 52
- Not in attendance: Allen, Berry, Bickley, Brack, Chico, Clark, Coe, Cole, Combs, Cook, Coxe, Crain, Crouch, DeGraff, Diminich, Dopp, Drafts, Echols, Galizia, Gill, Giovanniello, Goxhaj, Hanger, Holmes, Howard, Husser, Imam, Jones, Jones, Kaynard, Lietzow, Loredo, Lucy, Minson, Miracle, Moring, Oswalt, Palmer, Patrick, Peters, Ravenel, Raver, Rust, Savage, Seguer, Shahid, Smith, H., Smith, M., Smith, P., Staley, Stoney, Strickland, Taylor, Tecklenburg, Tecklenburg, Teller, Tonney, Vanek, Wackym, Walters, Weston, Willey, Woodell
- Out of Town Make-ups: None
WELLNESS TIP
Check Your Blood Pressure Regularly.
Hypertension or high blood pressure, is called a “silent killer”. This is because many people who have hypertension may not be aware of the problem as it may not have any symptoms. If left uncontrolled, hypertension can lead to heart, brain, kidney and other diseases. Have your blood pressure checked regularly by a health worker so you know your numbers. If your blood pressure is high, get the advice of a health worker. This is vital in the prevention and control of hypertension.
ARE CLUB MEETINGS
Mondays
- Summerville – Oakbrook: 7:30 a.m., Monday, Westcott County Club, 5000 Wescott Club Drive, North Charleston
- North Charleston: 12:30 a.m., Monday, Hilton Garden Inn, 5265 International Blvd, North Charleston.
- Summerville Evening: 5:30 p.m., Monday, Montreux Bar and Grill, 127 W. Richardson Ave., Summerville
Tuesdays
- East Cooper Breakfast: 7:30 a.m. Tuesday, Cooper River Room at Waterfront Park, Mount Pleasant
- Charleston: 12:30 p.m., Tuesday, Hall’s Signature Events, 5 Faber, Charleston
- Goose Creek: 12:45 m. Tuesday, Gilligan’s, 219 St. James Ave., Goose Creek
Wednesdays
- Daniel Island: 7:30 a.m. Wednesday, Daniel Island Club, 600 Island Park Dr., Daniel Island
- St. John’s Parish (John’s Island): 7:45 a.m. Wednesday, 2817 Maybank Highway, Unit 1, John’s Island
- Mount Pleasant: 12:30 p.m., Wednesday, Harbor Breeze Restaurant, 176 Patriots Point Road, Mount Pleasant
- Summerville: 1 p.m. Wednesday, Sticky Fingers, Summerville
Thursdays
- North Charleston Breakfast: 7:30 a.m. Thursday, Embassy Suites, 5055 International Blvd., North Charleston
- Moncks Corner: 12:30 p.m., Thursday, Gilligan’s Restaurant, Moncks Corner
- St. Andrews (West Ashley): 12:30 p.m., Thursday, Bessinger’s BBQ, 1602 Savannah Highway, Charleston.
Fridays
- Charleston Breakfast: Currently meeting by Zoom. Contact [email protected] for log in information
SOCIAL MEDIA
Our Rotary club actively uses social media — and we encourage you to interact with us through social media.
- We’re on Facebook. Take a look at our page and be sure to “like us”.
- We’re on Twitter. You can follow us @chasrotaryclub.
- We’re on Instagram. You can follow us @ChasRotaryClub.
ABOUT THE KEYWAY
The Keyway has been published weekly as a newsletter for the Rotary Club of Charleston for more than 90 years.
- President: Lisa Van Bergen
- Keyway editor: Don Baus [email protected]
- Executive secretary: Carroll Schweers, [email protected]
- Mailing address: Rotary Club of Charleston, P.O. Box 21029 ,Charleston, SC 29413-1029
- Copyright 2018, Rotary Club of Charleston. All rights reserved