Vitner Provides Economic Forecast

January 4, 2011: Nationally-known economist Mark Vitner opened a talk to Rotarians with something many have wanted to hear for awhile: “The near-term prospects for the economy have improved significantly.”

The economy, the Wells Fargo executive said, has been growing for 18 months, including the last five months in a row. More importantly, the fourth quarter of 2010 will end with 3.5 percent to 4 percent growth – much stronger than many anticipated.

“We’re clearly not going to have a double-dip” recession, he said, adding that inflation remained low and prices for everything, excluding food and energy, likely would rise less than 1 percent in the near future.

Job growth should also pick up, he said. In 2010, the country added about 90,000 jobs a month. In this new year, the number should move toward 160,000 a month. But while the recent Great Recession “doesn’t hold a candle” to the Great Depression, most need to understand that the huge job loss suffered by America – particularly in permanent jobs – will take years for the country to recover completely.

South Carolina has a different economic picture, in some ways, because of its large rural population and past reliance on labor-intensive industry. Private-sector employment growth still is weak, but there are modest gains in education, health care, business and professional service sectors.

But on a good note, as the nation continues to produce and export more, South Carolina’s dulled manufacturing capacity will start to hum again, which should bode well for the state in the next few years, Vitner said.

Submitted by Andy Brack, Keyway Committee