Election Politics: Trends and Realities
November 14, 2006: Dr. Debose Kapeluck, professor of political science at The Citadel reviewed the mid-term elections with a special emphasis on the national scene. The Democratic party made a strong showing to take control of the House with 230 members compared to 196 Republicans, a loss of 28 seats by the Republicans. In the Senate there is a 51 to 49 Democratic majority Among the governors of the nation there are now 28 Democrats to 22 Republicans, a Republican loss of 6. The Democrats also control 23 state legislatures, a gain of 5 states. However history tells us that the Democratic party has been the party in control most of the time since 1922. Recently the Republicans have been in control of the house since 1994. The Senate is more likely to shift between the parties.
Three broad factors tend to affect election changes: 1. Candidate Specifics, such as qualifications, being an incumbent, money available and the presence or absence of scandals. This time around there were a number of scandals and improprieties. 2. Party Specifics can affect one or the other party. This term events have included problems of corruption and ethics, the Iraq war [55% of the voters opposed to the war], and the economy. 3. The Election Cycle, which in this case was the fact that it was a mid-term, a time when the party in power almost always loses seats. Other issues include the fact that we as a nation are in a time of divided government. In this election year there were even members of the majority party speaking against the administration, such as Senators Hagel and McCain. Overall the election became a referendum on the president. There was a great deal of focus on individuals rather than issues, and the preponderance of negative advertising tends to suppress voter turnout.
Asked for a projection for 2008, Dr. Kapeluck stated that the Republicans will need to find a moderate candidate, and also seriously consider a woman vice president such as Condoleeza Rice, since he expects Hillary Clinton to take the Democratic party position.
Reported by Fred Sales, Keyway Committee